Tinubu, the North, and the Battle for 2027: Who's Nigeria's Next President?

Since Nigeria's return to democratic rule in 1999, the presidency has been shaped by an informal but powerful principle of regional rotation between the North and the South. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s emergence in 2023 disrupted many long-held assumptions about political loyalty and elite consensus, especially within Northern Nigeria. As conversations begin to intensify around the 2027 general election, Tinubu’s historical engagement with Northern politics, his strategic rise within the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the current tension over presidential zoning present a critical backdrop for understanding Nigeria’s evolving political dynamics.

Though Tinubu was not directly involved in Nigeria's political developments immediately after independence, his political influence began to intersect with Northern power blocs during the Fourth Republic. As governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007, he operated largely within the South-Western regional framework under the Alliance for Democracy (AD). However, following his governorship, Tinubu transitioned into a national political force.

This transition became apparent when he helped restructure the AD into the Action Congress (AC), and later the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), forming critical alliances with Northern opposition figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. These early cross-regional collaborations laid the foundation for Tinubu’s more enduring political pact with the North.

The most significant milestone was the 2013 formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), a coalition that included Tinubu’s ACN, Muhammadu Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), alongside a splinter faction of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This merger produced a formidable North-South alliance, culminating in Buhari’s election victory in 2015 and signaling Tinubu’s capacity to broker national influence from a regional power base.

In 2022, Bola Tinubu declared his ambition to contest the presidency, invoking the now-famous phrase “Emi lokan” (“It is my turn”). His candidacy was rooted in the unwritten political understanding that, following President Buhari’s eight-year tenure, power should shift to the South.

Despite initial resistance and competing aspirations from within the APC, Tinubu secured the party’s presidential ticket, thanks largely to the backing of 11 APC Northern governors who publicly supported a Southern presidency. This unprecedented move from the North demonstrated a continued commitment to the principles of power rotation and ensured Tinubu’s legitimacy within the ruling party.

Tinubu then selected former Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima as his running mate, an astute political calculation designed to consolidate support in the Northeast and counterbalance the religious and ethnic sensitivities that typically shape Nigerian elections. This Muslim-Muslim ticket drew criticism but proved electorally effective.

In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu won with 8.79 million votes, defeating Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party. His victory hinged on strong support from Northern states such as Jigawa, Borno, Zamfara, Niger, and Kwara. Notably, he underperformed in much of the South-East and South-South, underscoring the decisive role Northern votes played in securing his mandate.

Since Tinubu's inauguration, debate has intensified within Northern political circles over whether the presidency should return to the North in 2027. A section of Northern elites, particularly those aligned with the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and factions of the PDP, argue that Tinubu’s presidency should be limited to a single term, suggesting that the North has the demographic strength and electoral leverage to reclaim the presidency.

This view challenges the rotational principle and feeds into a broader conversation about Nigeria’s federal balance, equity, and the role of elite consensus. Critics of a continued Tinubu presidency often cite economic hardship and rising insecurity under his administration as reasons for reconsidering the South’s continued tenure in power.

On the other hand, many within the APC, including Tinubu’s Northern allies, insist that the President should be allowed to seek a second term, consistent with constitutional provisions and in recognition of the political stability that comes with respecting unwritten power-sharing norms. They also highlight Tinubu’s inclusive ministerial appointments, targeted investments in Northern security, and the elevation of key Northern political actors within the national executive and legislature.

Data from the 2023 election reveals key insights that could shape Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid:

• Electoral Turnout: Northern states such as Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, and Borno collectively contributed over 35% of national votes cast. This demographic edge has historically made the North a political kingmaker.

• Regional Voting Patterns: Tinubu lost key Southern states but retained enough Northern support to win. This underscores a critical reality: maintaining Northern political allegiance is essential to any future electoral success.

• Legislative and Executive Control: Tinubu’s allies hold key positions in the National Assembly, with Speaker Tajudeen Abbas and Vice President Shettima anchoring Northern support within the administration.

However, Tinubu must navigate growing economic discontent, particularly in Northern Nigeria, where inflation, subsidy removal, and food insecurity are taking a toll on public perception. Inter-party competition especially from figures like former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso could erode APC’s base if not carefully managed. Key figures such as Nasir El-Rufai, Abdullahi Ganduje, and ex-ministers from the Buhari era have also expressed either silent resistance or lukewarm loyalty to the current administration.

As 2027 approaches, Bola Tinubu finds himself in a complex balancing act. While his rise to the presidency was made possible through strategic Northern alliances, his ability to retain that support amid growing regional agitation will define the next phase of his presidency.

If Tinubu can deliver tangible economic relief, maintain elite consensus, and preserve the APC’s Northern coalition, he stands a strong chance of securing a second term. However, if regional grievances intensify and political alliances shift, the same Northern bloc that crowned him in 2023 could become the most significant obstacle to his re-election.

The battle for 2027, has already begun. President Tinubu’s political genius lies in building bridges across regions, religions, and rivalries. But those bridges must now carry the weight of expectation, performance, and trust.

Whether the North remains his base or becomes his greatest obstacle will determine not just his political fate, but the trajectory of Nigeria’s fragile federal arrangement.

Do you believe Tinubu should seek re-election in 2027, or should power return to the North? Share your thoughts in the comments.