Tinubu, the North, and the Battle for 2027: Who's Nigeria's Next President?
Since Nigeria's return to democratic rule in 1999, the presidency has been shaped by an informal but powerful principle of regional rotation between the North and the South. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s emergence in 2023 disrupted many long-held assumptions about political loyalty and elite consensus, especially within Northern Nigeria. As conversations begin to intensify around the 2027 general election, Tinubu’s historical engagement with Northern politics, his strategic rise within the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the current tension over presidential zoning present a critical backdrop for understanding Nigeria’s evolving political dynamics. Though Tinubu was not directly involved in Nigeria's political developments immediately after independence, his political influence began to intersect with Northern power blocs during the Fourth Republic. As governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007, he operated largely within the South-Western regional framework under the Allia...